Making a Strong Case as to Why the Browns Will Snap Their Playoff Drought in 2019
10) John Dorsey
Since the Browns have been back in the NFL since 1999, they've been notoriously bad at drafting due to incompetence in the front office, which is also why turnover is so high at the General Manager (GM) position. The Browns have finally shored up these problems by hiring John Dorsey at GM, who is largely responsible for this Browns turnaround since he's been hired. He's pulled no punches in regards to cutting dead weight and/or hoarding talent, which include trading away DeShone Kizer, Carlos Hyde, and Kenny Britt in favor of acquisitions such as Damarious Randall, Jarvis Landry, Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Sheldon Richardson, and Kareem Hunt. He was also bold enough to trade away Kevin Zeitler and Jabrill Peppers in favor of Olivier Vernon and Odell Beckham Jr. On top of that, he helped to put a merciful end to the disastrous Hue Jackson era in Cleveland (also kicking out Todd Hayley), whilst promoting the unassuming Freddie Kitchens to head coach. With the recent emphasis on defensive players in this year's draft (2019), John Dorsey is showing that he is incredibly serious about turning this league laughingstock into serious SuperBowl contenders.
9) Bengals in disarray
Simply put, the Bengals are not going to look to be contenders due to their injury-riddled team and atrocious defense (who also lost their most intimidating defensive player in Vontez Burfict to the Raiders), ranked as dead last in the league. Plus they have a huge question mark at head coach after firing notoriously underachieving head coach Marvin Lewis (0-7 in playoff games) in favor of Zac Taylor. Bottom line is, the Bengals are stuck in the AFC North basement; however, don't feel sorry for them, because they, like the Steelers and Ravens, loved to beat up on the Browns in the AFC North.
8) Backloaded AFC North schedule
The good thing about the Browns 2019 schedule is that most of their toughest opponents come in the first 8 weeks, with four of the seven teams (Seahawks, Patriots, Rams, Ravens) having made the playoffs in 2018. In fact, past Week 8, the Browns only play ONE playoff team from the previous season, which is a home game against the Ravens. Plus, Kareem Hunt will be able to come back after Week 10, right in time to play 5 of the 6 divisional games. Even if the Browns get off to a slow start (3-5 or 4-4), the last 8 games are set up for them to go somewhere between 6-2 and 8-0 over the second half of the season, a similar situation to last season.
7) Elite Offensive/Defensive Line
The Browns offensive line, thanks to the second-half team resurgence, was ranked #2 according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Though Kevin Zeitler is gone, the Browns hope to fill that void with Austin Corbett. On defense, the Browns upgraded their defensive line through the acquisitions of Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson, both of whom are expected to be excellent run stoppers and pass rushers that compliment the likes of Larry Ogunjobi and Myles Garrett. As long as everyone is healthy, there's no reason why both sides of the line don't improve over the course of the 2019 season.
6) Ravens' Obvious Flaws
After the end of the 2018 season, the Baltimore Ravens, with their elite defense (ranked #1 overall according to ESPN), ended up losing many of their best players to free agency, which include Eric Weddle, Terrell Suggs, and C.J. Mosley (although they did sign Earl Thomas from the Seahawks). With the acquisition of Mark Ingram, the Ravens have shown that they are fully committed to being a run-heavy offense, which is good and bad for them, especially with Lamar Jackson as their QB.
Despite leading them to a playoff berth, the major flaw with Lamar Jackson is that he's not nearly as good of a pocket passer as he should be, especially throwing outside the numbers. His stats scream mediocrity when one examines them. As a rookie, Lamar Jackson started in 7 games (16 games played) and finished with 1,201 passing yards, a 58.2% completion rate, with 6 TD passes and 3 INTs. With these numbers projected out over all 16 games, had he started every game, he'd have finished with approximately 2,745 passing yards 14 TD passes, and 7 INTs. Not exactly "franchise quarterback" numbers.
Now, compare those numbers to Baker Mayfield, who started in 13 games (14 games played) and finished with 3,725 passing yards, a 63.8% completion rate, with 27 TD passes and 14 INTs. With these numbers projected out over all 16 games, had he been named the starter from the beginning, he'd have finished with approximately 4,257 passing yards, 31 TD passes and 16 INTs.
Let's also not forget that Browns Hall of Famer and Ravens long-time GM in Ozzie Newsome recently retired as well, creating a gaping hole with stability at GM.
We can also point out how, outside of the turnovers, how well Baker Mayfield has played against this elite Ravens defense. For one, he and Patrick Mahomes are the only two QBs to pass for more than 300 yards against the Ravens in 2018, with Baker being the only one to do it twice. For two, Baker has averaged approximately 359 passing yards and 2 TDs against the Ravens as a rookie. With their losses on defense and the Browns significant improvements at wide receiver, how well do you think he will do passing against that Ravens defense the next time they meet?
To put it bluntly, the Ravens luck WILL run out against the Browns. It's not a matter of IF, but WHEN. The last time these two teams met, the Ravens needed almost 300 rushing yards, 3 Baker Mayfield INTs, a missed field goal AND TD pass by the Browns, as well as an early whistle on a Lamar Jackson fumble that should have gone the other way for a defensive TD for the Ravens to barely beat the Browns by 2 (26-24). Ravens will not keep getting all of these breaks going their way.
(As a personal aside, I predict the Browns beat the Ravens Week 4 on the road 34-17, with Baker throwing for 420 yards and 4 TDs, with, at worst, 2 INTs, simply because the Ravens have Earl Thomas.)
5) Steelers' Flaws/Dysfunction
The Steelers are in a position similar to the Ravens, but on offense. Despite making upgrades to their defense with the acquisition of Devin Bush, Jr. from Michigan (along with their offensive line being ranked #1 according to PFF), the Steelers lost a lot of talent offensively with the departure of starters Jesse James (Tight End), Antonio Brown (Wide Receiver), and Le'Veon Bell (Running Back), who went to the Lions, Raiders, and Jets, respectively. Now, Vance McDonald, JuJu Smith-Shuster, and James Conner are good players in their own right. However, the issue here is that they are still a tier below the starpower of the previous starters; plus James Conner has problems with holding onto the football.
As Steelers fan and YouTube sports commentator Urinating Tree has pointed out, despite being hailed as a model franchise, the Steelers have had a ton of dysfunction behind the scenes, which include their starting veteran QB Ben Rothlisberger, who is surprisingly immature and a team cancer, despite his future Hall of Famer (HOF) statistics.
Not to mention that they still have Chris Boswell, who missed the most kicks in the NFL in 2018.
Something tells me that despite their depth, critical mistakes will cost them a handful of games.
4) The Huge Chip on Baker Mayfield's Shoulder
Baker Mayfield is notorious for being a fiery competitor. Going from being a walk-on to Oklahoma and Texas Tech to winning the heisman in 2017 and being the #1 NFL draft pick in 2018 is no easy feat, especially for someone who is considered to be "undersized" at the QB position. Being doubted because of size and/or "undraftability" despite his insane accuracy and surprising level of maturity and leadership at QB is something that he takes personally as an athlete. Add to the fact that he was snubbed for Offensive Rookie of the Year despite winning Rookie of the Week seven times (compared to Saquon Batkley's three times) and setting the NFL rookie TD passing record, and you have a recipe for a guy who's gonna be looking to prove the doubters wrong. Another element adding fuel to his fire is the keen awareness that he still is not respected by some as an elite passer simply because he is proud to rep the Black Sheep of the NFL in the Browns. With all of this as motivation, don't be surprised if Baker throws north of 4,500 yards and 40 TDs (and no more than 20 INTs) and is competing with the likes of Patrick Mahomes for NFL MVP.
3) Browns are (Low-Key) Desperate, Steelers & Ravens are Arrogant
It has been said that some people cannot begin to change until they hit rock bottom. For the Browns, that occurred when they went 0-16 in 2017, removing all false hope of "it'll be alright" that come with previous seasons of winning between 3-6 games. This immediately created a shift in mindset from "wait til' next year" to "win right now". And so because of this, the Browns, if you observe their electrifying playing style, has an underlying hint of desperation that comes with it. Simply put, the Browns have been backed into a corner over the last 20 years when it comes to losing that they simply have no other option to retain relevance and fan support than to win as much as they can right now, even if it means winning (gasp!) the SuperBowl.
The Steelers and Ravens, on the other hand, are incredibly arrogant when it comes to facing the Browns in the AFC North. Especially the Steelers, whom many fans of the organizations still insist on believing that this is "da same old Browns", despite a) their major departures, and b) the Browns major additions.
Don't be surprised if the Ravens finish 8-8 (due to teams finally "getting tape" on Lamar Jackson) and the Steelers finish somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7 (due to costly mistakes by the likes of James Conner, Ben Rothlisberger, and Chris Boswell).
2) Extremely young and talented playmakers
What do Jarvis Landry, Baker Mayfield, Denzel Ward, Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr., Myles Garrett, Joe Shobert, Genard Avery, and Greedy Williams all have in common (besides playing for the Browns)?
Answer: They're all currently under the age of 27.
What that means is simply that as long as their is enough cap space, this team's championship window will be open for a while.
1) Browns are simply overdue for a playoff appearance
If, over the last decade, perennial NFL laughingstocks such as the Saints, Seahawks, and Eagles can all win SuperBowls, the Jaguars go from 3-13 in 2016 to 10-6 and making an AFC Championship game appearance in 2017-18 (led by the likes of the underachieving Blake Bortles) as well the Buffalo Bills snapping a 20 year playoff drought that lasted longer than the Browns (led by the notoriously conservative Tyrod Taylor at QB), along with the Los Angeles Rams going from an abysmal 4-12 in 2016 to 13-3 in 2018 and making a SuperBowl LIII appearance, than it isn't too much of a stretch to say that the Browns can snap a playoff drought.
(*Note: formatting errors due to blogger.com, not personal error.)
